Monday Morning Links 2023 Week 42

Global stock-related links

Berkshire Hathaway aficionados will enjoy the interview with Todd Combs. He believes short-selling requires an 80-85% hit rate and that generalists win over the long run.

But the real highlight is the interview with Felix Zulauf. He argues that the world is returning to a cold war between US- and China-led blocks of nations. After a mild US recession, he believes inflation and interest rates will head higher, hurting real estate and bond markets.

The stock write-up I found most compelling this week was Wolf of Harcourt Street’s post on Swedish online casino service provider Evolution. Platforms that enable others to make money tend to earn a high return on capital. Its top-line growth has been incredible. The only question marks are regulation and recurring share issuance.

Americas:

• JustValue on insulation specialist Topbuild (🇺🇸 BLD US - US$7.6 billion)

• Value Don’t Lie on boat engine producer Brunswick (🇺🇸 BC US - US$5.2 billion)

• Bonhoeffer on Academy Sports and Outdoors (🇺🇸 ASO US - US$3.2 billion)

• Left’s Newsletter on prison operator Geo Group (🇺🇸 GEO US - US$1.1 billion)

• LatAm on sugarcane producer Jalles Machado (🇧🇷 JALL3 BZ - US$490 million)

Europe:

• Wolf of Harcourt Street on online casino bet Evolution (🇸🇪 EVO SS - US$21 billion)

• Mokapu Capital with an update on Airtel Africa (🇿🇦 AAF LN - US$5.4 billion)

• Mr Market Miscalculates on Intermediate Capital (🇬🇧 ICP LN - US$4.8 billion)

• Invariant on tobacco distributor Logista (🇪🇸 LOG SM - US$3.3 billion)

• Secret Sauce Investing on the UK bakery Greggs (🇬🇧 GRG LN - US$2.9 billion)

• Business Breakdowns on the moat of Robertet (🇫🇷 RBT FP - US$2.1 billion)

• Abilitato on Italmobiliare (🇮🇹 ITM IM - US$1.1 billion) (German language)

• Daikoku Capital on family holdco Ocean Wilson (🇬🇧 OCN LN - US$436 million)

• Maynard Paton on consumer lender S&U (🇬🇧 SUS LN - US$322 million)

• Tweets from Hugo Bazacle on Gentili Mosconi (🇮🇹 GM IM - US$73 million)

• French Hidden Champions on Fill Up Media (🇫🇷 ALFUM FP - US$25 million)

Asia-Pacific:

• Asian Century Stocks on property developer COLI (🇨🇳 688 HK - US$22 billion)

• Kenkyo Investing on Matsumoto Yushi-Seiyaku (🇯🇵 4365 JP - US$423 million)

• Hurdle Rate on financial services Fiducian Group (🇦🇺 FID AU - US$117 million)

• Tweets from gezzogero on Okano Valve Mfg (🇯🇵 6492 JP - US$33 million)

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(estimated reading time)

• Eagle Point Capital: book reviews for September 2023 (9 mins)

• Value Investing Substack with a semiconductor industry primer (20 mins)

• Wedgewood Partners 3Q2023 letter on O’Reilly Automotive (18 pages)

• Pernas Research’s 3Q2023 letter on Remitly, Endor, NPR, etc (5 mins)

• Best Anchor Stocks: Introduction to the global spirits industry (31 mins)

• The International Investor on the speculative surge in the art market (5 mins)

• The Sleepwell Strategy on how to think about luxury brands like Rolex (15 mins)

• Great background on the Israel-Palestine conflict from Tomas Pueyo (20 mins)

• Jonathan Ruffer’s Oct investment review discussing the Japanese yen (8 mins)

• Travel notes from Mark Mobius’s recent trip to southern China (4 mins)

• Asian Century Stocks: Australia’s coming housing bust (10 mins)

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(listening time)

• Todd Combs on the lessons he learnt at Berkshire and elsewhere (1:13 hours)

• Felix Zulauf believes in a mild recession but long-term stagflation (1:13 hours)

• Paul Tudor Jones: the US fiscal position is in bad shape: Part 1 & Part 2 (13 mins)

• Steve Eisman of “Big Short” fame is bearish about US bank stocks (5 mins)

• Todd Wenning of the Substack Flyover Stocks on finding moaty stocks (51 mins)

• Peter Mantas on finding quality in the life sciences industry (1:38 hours)

• Keith Smith of Bonhoeffer with a mining services 101 lesson (1:14 hours)

• Arvind Sanger discussing nuclear power and the uranium market (53 mins)

• Bill Chen of Rhizome Partners on opportunities in REITs (1:11 hours)

• Daye Deng of Value Punks on the Japanese trading companies (50 mins)

• CLSA’s John Seagrim on shareholder activism in Japan (29 mins)

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Bank of America’s fund manager survey suggests that active investors are overweight cash and t-bills. This could suggest relative future underperformance of cash. Source: Bank of America

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