Monday Morning Links Week 43
Global stock-related links
I enjoyed Jens Nordvig’s discussion of where we are in the US rates cycle. His view is that inflation is trending lower, and as core PCE drops closer to the 2% target, we could see the 10-year at 3.5%. Fed governors also seem to guide for a pause, yet the market doesn’t believe them.
I also liked Andrew Walker’s interview with Jonathan Boyar, discussing Topgolf Callaway Golf, which owns the driving range operator Topgolf and the golf club brand Callaway. It’s clear that Topgolf is an incredible franchise with long-term growth potential, but it’s facing near-term headwinds due to high interest rates. On the positive side, Topgolf Callaway Golf insiders are buying en masse.
Americas:
Librarian Capital on Bank of America (🇺🇸 BAC US - US$208 billion)
Invariant on Philip Morris’s ZYN and iQOS products (🇺🇸 PM US - US$144 billion)
Eagle Point on stock compensation at Autozone (🇺🇸 AZO US - US$44 billion)
Moram on The One Group Hospitality (🇺🇸 STKS US - US$139 million)
Special Situations Investing on Beaver Coal (🇺🇸 BVERS US - US$76 million)
Europe:
Samuel Weber on testing firm Eurofins Scientific (🇫🇷 ERF FP - US$9.4 billion)
M17 Capital on cleaning services company ISS (🇩🇰 ISS DC - US$2.6 billion)
Abilitato: English language write-up on Italmobiliare (🇮🇹 ITM IM - US$1.1 billion)
Cockney’s Substack on Midwich Group (🇬🇧 MIDW LN - US$499 million)
Zippy Capital on Civitanavi (🇮🇹 CNS IM - US$125 million)
From $100K to $1M on hyped vessel paint maker I-Tech (🇸🇪 ITECH SS - US$46m)
French Hidden Champions on Boa Concept (🇫🇷 ALBOA FP - US$30 million)
Treasure Hunting on auction house Saga Furs (🇫🇮 SAGCV FH - US$31 million)
Asia-Pacific:
Asian Century Stocks on glove maker Hartalega (🇲🇾 HART MK - US$1.5 billion)
Allan Gray’s Simon Mawhinney on Alumina (🇦🇺 AWC AU - US$1.5 billion)
AVI Japan Opportunity Trust on Takuma (🇯🇵 6013 JP - US$783 million)
L1 Capital on oil & gas company Santos (🇦🇺 STO AU - US$16 billion)
(estimated reading time)
Marc Andreessen with a controversial essay on techno-optimism (23 mins)
Doug O’Laughlin: The rise and fall of the telecom bubble (24 mins)
Florian Kronawitter sees downside for equities (8 mins)
Opus Substack on investing in Bhutan (14 mins)
Undervalued shares: What we learned from our Hungary trip (18 mins)
Stephen Clapham: notes from the MoneyWeek conference 2023 (5 mins)
Hedge Fund Girl: Lessons from loser investments (15 mins)
Frederik Gieschen wrote a post about the rise and fall of empires (11 mins)
GMO’s new whitepaper “Japan: The Land of the rising profits” (12 pages)
Andrew Batson on China’s fiscal situation (6 mins)
Stratechery on Moore’s Law and its implications for the China chip ban (10 mins)
Strategist Benjamin Bennett: could PRC could face a Lehman moment (4 mins)
Tomas Pueyo continues to discuss the Israel-Hamas conflict in a neutral light. I found his posts helpful: the Gaza Trap & Do Arab States Support Israel? (29 mins)
Warden Capital’s 3Q2023 letter discussing US real estate (14 mins)
Gehlen Bräutigam’s 3Q2023 letter on Enad Global 7, Anima, etc (9 pages)
Cedar Creek’s 3Q2023 letter on Citizen Bancshares, Solitron, etc (5 pages)
(listening time)
Jens Nordvig on where we are in the US rate cycle (1:13 hours)
Jeff Gundlach’s presentation at the Grant’s conference on US rates (40 mins)
Claudio Borio of BIS discussing financial history (1:02 hours)
Torsten Slok on the current macroeconomic backdrop (1 hour)
Transistor Radio on new US regulations affecting China’s chip industry (54 mins)
Hao Hong on China’s housing market and the impact of US rate hikes (26 mins)
Bill Smead on his investing approach and his outlook for markets (1:08 hours)
Isaac Corre of Governors Lane on his view on event-driven investing (47 mins)
George Livadas of Upslope Capital teaching you short-selling (56 mins)
Chris Semenuk of Tema ETF on the royalties industry (14 mins)
Jonathan Boyar on Topgolf Gallaway Brands (52 mins)
Yinan Zhao from Pzena giving an introduction to chemicals giant Olin (59 mins)
Disclaimer: Monday Morning Links uses information sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The opinions expressed in such publications are those of the publisher and are subject to change without notice. You are advised to discuss your investment options with your financial advisers, including whether any investment suits your specific needs. From time to time, I may have positions in the securities covered in the articles on this website.