Monday Morning Links Week 44

Global stock-related links

My favourite podcast of the week was the interview with Scott Bessent, a former analyst for George Soros and Stan Druckenmiller. Bessent makes money by identifying changes, anomalies, or mistakes policymakers make. He’s bullish on Japan thanks to the weak yen, TSE’s corporate governance reforms and the capitalist economy. He’s bearish on China under Xi Jinping and believes the CCP could blockade Taiwan after the general election in January 2024.

I also recommend Bridgewater alumnus Andy Constan’s interview on Real Vision for those interested in the US Treasury market. He’s starting to see value at the long end of the yield curve, but the US economy remains weak until layoffs in February 2024. The most obvious opportunity in his mind is shorting US equities.

Americas:

• Rowan Street discussing Meta (🇺🇸 META US - US$763 billion)

• Librarian Capital on Raytheon (🇺🇸 RTX US - US$114 billion)

• Invariant Substack discussing Altria (🇺🇸 MO US - US$70 billion)

• Sleepwell Investments on NVR (🇺🇸 NVR US - US$17 billion)

• Value Don’t Lie on First Horizon (🇺🇸 FHB US - US$5.9 billion)

• Capital Incentives on Zurn Elkay Water (🇺🇸 ZWS US - US$4.5 billion)

• Alluvial Capital on Talen Energy (🇺🇸 TLNE US - US$3.1 billion)

• Third Avenue on LSB Industries (🇺🇸 LXU US - US$682 million)

• Shadow Stock on Joint Corp (🇺🇸 JYNT US - US$116 million)

• Plural Investing on Currency Exchange Int’l (🇨🇦 CXI CN - US$89 million)

Europe:

• Business Breakdowns on HAL Trust (🇳🇱 HAL NA - US$10 billion)

• Tachy’s Stack on Rockwool (🇩🇰 ROCK-B DC - US$4.7 billion)

• Emerging Value on IWG (🇬🇧 IWG LN - US$1.6 billion)

• Undervalued Shares on Northern Data (🇩🇪 NB2 GR - US$874 million)

• Atai Capital on Enad Global 7 (🇸🇪 EG7 SS - US$151 million)

• Moram on industrial chain company Renold (🇬🇧 RNO LN - US$71 million)

• Calico Capital with an old post on Gibus (🇮🇹 GBUS IM - US$55 million)

• French Hidden Champions on Memscap (🇫🇷 MEMS FP - US$36 million)

• The Mikro Kap on Lindbergh (🇮🇹 LDB IM - US$19 million)

Asia-Pacific:

• Palliser Capital on Keisei Electric Railway (🇯🇵 9009 JP - US$6.2 billion)

• Pyramids & Pagodas on UC Rusal (🇷🇺 486 HK - US$5.7 billion)

• Old West on Adriatic Metals (🇦🇺 ADT AU - US$638 million)

• Hurdle Rate on Sky Network Television (🇳🇿 SKT NZ - US$242 million)

• Clark Square Capital on Webcentral (🇦🇺 WCG AU - US$55 million)

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(estimated reading time)

• Evan Osnos’ article on what he thinks is PRC’s shift to stagnation (44 mins)

• Lewis Enterprises’ report on making money off disasters (4 mins)

• Special Situation Investing with discussion on position sizing (9 mins)

• Eagle Point Capital discussing the book The Luxury Strategy (11 mins)

• Variant Perception: Top / least crowded names among EM stocks (1 min)

• Russell Clark: Is short TLT done? (1 min)

• The Opus: Investing in Bhutan, part 2 (8 mins)

• Scott Grannis: Growth and inflation update: not much to worry about (4 mins)

• Michael Mauboussin’s new report Total Shareholder Return (32 pages)

• Turtles Substack with a portfolio update for October 2023 (6 mins)

• Mokapu Capital: 3Q2023 portfolio update on HRNet, Frontier Dev, etc. (3 mins)

• Laughing Water Capital’s 3Q2023 letter on Hilton Grand Vacations, etc (8 pgs)

• Curreen Capital’s 3Q2023 letter on Advantage Solutions, Frontdoor, GetBusy, Nilorngruppen and CACC (4 pages)

• Pernas Research’s 3Q2023 letter on NPR, Remitly, Endor (6 mins)

• Kathmandu Capital’s 3Q2023 on Kaspi, Nagacorp, SES Imagotag (7 pages)

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(listening time)

• Scott Bessent on his investing philosophy, where he’s investing (1:02 hours)

• Andy Constan on US interest rates and Treasury securities (39 mins)

• Boaz Weinstein on his life and opportunities in closed-end funds (55 mins)

• Marc Andreessen & Ben Horowitz discuss techno-optimism (1:07 hours)

• Professor Aswath Damodaran discussing investing and macro in 2023 (1:21 hrs)

• Vincent Daniel & Porter Collins from Seawolf on current opp’s (1:20 hours)

• Richard Oldfield, value investor and author of Simple but not Easy (42 mins)

• Sheldon Stone of Oaktree discussing fixed income (1:02 hours)

• Aidan Garrib with a deep-dive on China’s financial system (50 mins)

• George Hadjia of small fund Bristlemoon Capital on Match Group (1:09 hours)

• Ryan O’Connor on Nintendo, Google and inflection investing (2:18 hours)

• Conor Maguire from Value Situations on the fertilizer industry (1:07 hours)

• Kyle Mowerie on US industrials and value stocks (1:02 hours)

• Harris Kupperman: How to profit from a crash or boom (1:10 mins)

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Source: emerging market closed-end funds are trading at record discounts to NAV. Source: Variant Perception

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Disclaimer: Monday Morning Links uses information sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The opinions expressed in such publications are those of the publisher and are subject to change without notice. You are advised to discuss your investment options with your financial advisers, including whether any investment suits your specific needs. From time to time, I may have positions in the securities covered in the articles on this website.