Monday Morning Links Week 3

Global stock-related links

The most insightful podcast episode I’ve listened to this year was the interview with Michael Ovitz, the Hollywood talent agent turned Silicon Valley advisor. What makes it worth listening to is understanding how he sizes up talent, including CEOs: they need to be driven, have emotional control and decent manners, and look at you when you speak to them. He suggests spending time with the best talent to understand the appropriate benchmark. He also wrote the excellent book Who Is Michael Ovitz? narrated by himself in the audiobook version.

Bond investor Jeff Gundlach’s latest webinar suggests that the US is about to enter a recession. M2 continues to be negative, and cyclical unemployment is weakening. He expects the Fed to undertake extraordinary measures, including a return to quantitative easing, which will be negative for the US Dollar.

The stock write-up that stood out to me in the past week was Mokapu Capital’s post on Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi di Bologna (“ADB”). He’s written about the company before, but the airport has continued to improve while the share price is flat. Ryanair signed a 6-year contract with ADB at slightly lower pricing, but on the positive side, aero charges will increase by +10% in 2024. The stock now trades at 14.8x P/E.

Americas:

• No Deep Dives on AerCap (🇺🇸 AER US - US$15 billion)

• Value Don’t Lie on Synchrony Financial (🇺🇸 SYF US - US$15 billion)

• Under the Bus Capital on CCL Industries (🇨🇦 CCL CN - US$7.7 billion)

• East72 Dynastry Trust on E-L Financial (🇨🇦 ELF CN - US$2.7 billion)

• Augustusville on Delek US Holdings (🇺🇸 DK US - US$1.6 billion)

• Investor Samir Mohamed on G Mining Ventures (🇨🇦 GMIN CN - US$561 million)

• Eagle Point Capital on Esquire Financial (🇺🇸 ESQ US - US$363 million)

• Moram on Full House Resorts (🇺🇸 FLL US - US$168 million)

• Odinson on Innovative Solutions & Support (🇺🇸 ISSC US - US$143 million)

• Overlooked and Undervalued on Gama Aviation (🇺🇸 GMAA US - US$75 million)

• Left’s Newsletter on Pro-Dex (🇺🇸 PDEX US - US$74 million)

Europe, Middle East & Africa:

• Protea Capital Management on Kering (🇫🇷 KER FP - US$49 billion)

• Insider Ideas on IWG (🇬🇧 IWG LN - US$2.3 billion)

• One-Foot Bars on Laurent-Perrier (🇫🇷 LPE FP - US$797 million)

• Mokapu on Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi di Bologna (🇮🇹 ADB IM - US$328m)

• Value Zoomer on Smiths News (🇬🇧 SNWS LN - US$147 million)

Asia-Pacific:

• Kris Mehta of Enam Holdings on HDFC Bank (🇮🇳 HDB US - US$150 billion)

• Jacob Mcdonough on venture capital firm Beenos (🇯🇵 3328 JP - US$117 million)

• 8% Value Investhink on school Overseas Education (🇸🇬 OEL SP - US$67 million)

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(estimated reading time)

• JP Morgan 1Q2024 Guide to the Markets (71 slides)

• Some wise advice from Andrew Walker for beginner investors (10 mins)

• Graham Duncan: What you need to think about before starting a fund (17 mins)

• Richard Toad with some good color on Eric Mandelblatt at Soroban (11 mins)

• Scott Grannis is seeing a slowdown in US economic growth (5 mins)

• Tech Investments with an overview of the GaN industry, which is taking share from silicon and provides growth for Taiwanese foundry WIN Semi (21 mins)

• Ben Evans provides an overview of generative AI (87 slides)

• French Hidden Champions discusses a few recent insider buys (1 mins)

• Clark Street Value provides an overview of his special sits portfolio (23 mins)

• David Katunaric provides an overview of his deep-value portfolio (6 mins)

• AlmostMongolian provides an overview of his commodity portfolio (24 mins)

• Altay Capital provides an overview of his Japanese low P/B portfolio (6 mins)

• Wolf of Harcourt Street provides an overview of his tech portfolio (3 mins)

• Maynard Paton provides an overview of his UK-focused portfolio (6 mins)

• Searching 4 Value provides an overview of his European portfolio (8 pages)

• Frontier market investor Michael McGaughy: books he read in 2023 (5 mins)

• Asian Century Stocks on the recent rise in cocoa prices (14 mins)

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(listening time)

• Michael Ovitz on what he’s learned throughout his career as agent (1:49 hours)

• Jeff Gundlach provides a macroeconomic outlook for 2024 (1:15 hours)

• Felix Zulauf is decidedly bearish in his 2024 economic outlook (40 mins)

• John Floyd discussing his outlook for currencies in 2024 (49 mins)

• Hamilton Helmer explains his 7 powers framework for assessing firms (49 mins)

• Substack author Citrini on how he tries to catch big trends (53 mins)

• Adam Butler on the long-term potential impact of generative AI tools (1:03 hours)

• Anas Alhajji with his 2024 energy sector outlook: oil, EVs, nuclear, etc (55 mins)

• Jim Royal on his book Zen of Thrift Conversions and some ideas (59 mins)

• Adam Patinkin on asset-light UK homebuilder Vistry (1:30 hours)

• Matthew Kidman from Centennial AM with 5 Aussie stocks (5 mins)

• Skift Podcast on China’s disappointing travel reopening (33 mins)

• Asset Value Investors Joe Bauernfreund on Japan activism (49 mins)

• Singapore’s FM 89.3 on travel stock Straco Corporation (17 mins)

• Herald van der Linde with some recent insights about Asian markets (22 mins)

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US M2 money supply growth remains negative. The longer this situation persists, the more likely that we’ll see a shortage of money at some point. Source: Game of Trades

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