Monday Morning Links Week 49

Global stock-related links

After Charlie Munger passed away at age 99, a reader kindly shared his video Psychology of Human Misjudgement. If you listen to any podcast episode this week, make it this one. Munger goes through the most common causes of human misjudgment, including distorted incentives, the urge to reciprocate, social proof, authority bias, commitment bias, etc.

I also loved the interview with British historian Edward Chancellor. He’s bearish on the renewables and the private equity industries since they’re hurting from recent interest rate hikes. Chancellor thinks the best value can be found outside the United States, especially in the UK and Japan.

Finally, have a look at the ASEAN stocks discussed by Ross & Van Compernolle in their recent update. These include Delfi, Velesto, PV Drilling, Marco Polo Marine, CSE Global, Arwana Citramulia, etc. Ross & Van Compernolle believe that the offshore oil & gas services market remains tight as industry capex lags behind demand. They also believe that Indonesia’s economy will benefit from fiscal spending in the run-up to the 2024 election. Most of their stocks trade at single-digit P/E multiples.

Americas:

• Hidden Value Gems on Fleetcor (🇺🇸 FLT US - US$18 billion)

• Value Don’t Lie on Worthington Industries (🇺🇸 WOR US - US$2.3 billion)

• From $100K to $1M on IDT Corporation (🇺🇸 IDT US - US$738 million)

• Daikoku Capital: update on American Coastal (🇺🇸 ACIC US - US$365 million)

• Invariant on cosmetics ingredients maker United-Guardian (🇺🇸 UG US - US$37 million)

Europe:

• Profit Hunting blog discussing Aker BP (🇳🇴 AKERBP NO - US$18 billion)

• Librarian Capital with an update on Rémy Cointreau (🇫🇷 RCO FP - US$5.9 billion)

• Sleepwell on health tech firm Medistim (🇳🇴 MEDI NO - US$349 million)

• The Micro Investor on HAV Group (🇳🇴 HAV NO - US$29 million)

Asia-Pacific:

• Jake Barfield on HR-tech company Medley (🇯🇵 4480 JP - US$936 million)

• DaBao with a short pitch on Well Shin Technology (🇹🇼 3501 TT - US$194 million)

• Oriental Value on restaurant operator LH Group (🇭🇰 1978 HK - US$97 million)

• Altay Capital on Kawagishi Bridge Works (🇯🇵 5921 JP - US$64 million)

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(estimated reading time)

• Value & Opportunity reviews the Bridgewater book The Fund (3 mins)

• Florian Kronawitter provides three scenarios for global markets (9 mins)

• Jens Nordvig thinks the higher-for-longer narrative is already outdated (2 mins)

• Clark Square Capital’s list of 28 value-with-a-catalyst situations (1 min)

• Emerging Value with four cheap energy stocks (7 mins)

• Turtles: Three biotechs trading below net cash (3 mins)

• Laura Michelle Davis breaks down the nuances of US employment data (10 mins)

• Russell Clark discussing the cyclicality of short-selling (5 mins)

• Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on Javier Milei, calling him “Thatcherite” (6 mins)

• PAG’s Weijian Shan: Will China continue to grow? (12 pages) h/t: Offpiste

• Japan investors provide their predictions for 2024 (2 mins) h/t: Rei Saito

• Ross & Van Compernolle discussing a few of its ASEAN holdings (15 mins)

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(listening time)

• In memory of Charlie Munger: “Psychology of Human Misjudgment” (1:16 hours)

• Fidelity’s Joel Tillinghast on how he compounded at 13% since 1989 (42 mins)

• Edward Chancellor on why ZIRP caused a misallocation of capital (53 mins)

• Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius believes in a soft landing (48 mins)

• Brad Setser on Javier Milei and the troubles ailing Argentina (37 mins)

• Maj Soueidan on what he’s learnt from 30 years of micro-cap investing (55 mins)

• Hourglass Investing Podcast on Deckers Brand (21 mins)

• Acquired Podcast with a deep-dive on Visa (3:43 hours)

• Russell Napier talks to Kwasi Kwarteng about his book War and Gold (40 mins)

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The current drawdown in US Treasury bonds is by far the highest in 50 years. Source: Financial Times, Plan Maestro

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