Monday Morning Links Week 5
Global stock-related links
The best write-up I’ve read recently is John Hempton’s note on US sportswear retailer Hibbett Sports. His fund, Bronte Capital, is a major shareholder and sees potential in its subsidiary, City Gear. He makes the case that Nike supports City Gear since it offers access to small-town and rural customers. Sneakers are collectable and status symbols, so there’s certainly the potential for profits. Hibbett trades at 8.0x P/E.
Dan Wang’s beautifully written 2023 letter provides great insight into the minds of young Chinese disillusioned with the direction in which the country is going. He thinks Xi might have been correct in his crackdowns, but it’s also led to paralysis and weak consumer confidence. On the positive side, Chinese companies are doing well in solar photovoltaics, EV batteries, automotive and several other industries. And Dan thinks the opening-up reform will not be fully reversed:
“Chinese have had 40 years to engage more with the rest of the world, and Xi is not a good enough storyteller to convince everyone to fully turn inwards once more.”
I also want to call attention to the puke we saw in the Hang Seng index last week (see the chart below). The index reached almost exactly the same level as in the panic of October 2022. Share prices have now stabilised after the Chinese government promised forceful steps to restore investor confidence. Hong Kong equities remain among the cheapest of any major market, in my view.
Americas:
Firebird Management on payment company Fleetcor (🇺🇸 FLT US - US$21 billion)
Value Don’t Lie on Advance Auto Parts (🇺🇸 AAP US - US$3.9 billion)
Overlooked Alpha on Spin Master (🇨🇦 TOY CN - US$2.8 billion)
BrightGate Capital on Northeast Bank (🇺🇸 NBN US - US$433 million)
John Hempton on Hibbett (🇺🇸 HIBB US - US$804 million)
Mokapu Capital on Carriage Services (🇺🇸 CSV US - US$379 million)
Europe, Middle East & Africa:
Maran Partners on homebuilder Vistry Group (🇬🇧 VTY LN - US$4.3 billion)
Cockney’s Substack on Avon Protection (🇬🇧 AVON LN - US$363 million)
No Deep Dives on Macfarlane Group (🇬🇧 MACF LN - US$249 million)
Asia-Pacific:
Value Punks on HDFC Bank (🇺🇸 HDB US - US$131 billion)
Continuous Compounding on Round 1 (🇯🇵 4680 JP - US$1.1 billion)
Clark Square Capital with an update on Webcentral (🇦🇺 WCG AU - US$53 million)
(estimated reading time)
Greenlight Capital’s full year 2023 letter with decent performance (7 pages)
Joachim Klement: the Fed model does not favor bonds over stocks (2 mins)
Scott Grannis: six important charts for the US economy (3 mins)
Packer & Co’s 2023 annual report discussing the US tech bubble (5 pages)
Dan Wang’s 2023 letter on the state of the Chinese economy (39 mins)
Global Stock Picking: outlook for HK Stocks in the Year of the Dragon (13 mins)
Topdown Charts: big breakdown in China (2 mins)
Rosse & Van Compernolle with updated ASEAN country fact sheets (2 pgs each)
Undervalued Shares on the Saudi exchange (15 mins)
Matthew Ball: The troubled state of gaming in 2024 (1:07 hours)
ZeroSummation with a 2024 portfolio update: shipping, uranium, etc. (7 mins)
Wintergems with a few more portfolio holdings: Part 1 & Part 2 (16 mins)
Turtles Substack with two new positions: Avrobio and TK Group (3 mins)
Asian Century Stocks with a primer on fraud in the Asia-Pacific region (24 mins)
(listening time)
Jeff Gundlach on making money in 2024 (15 mins)
Bob Robotti provides his value picks for 2024 (53 mins)
Rob Vinall answering investor questions at the AGM a few weeks ago (1:32 hours)
Ed Yardeni sees parallels with the Spanish flu and is hence bullish (41 mins)
David Kotok on Fed policy and what it means for US stocks (1:12 hours)
Terry Smith on why active management still matters (he’s obv. biased) (55 mins)
Capital Group’s Vice Chair Jody Jonsson on global investing (52 mins)
Lake Cornelia’s Judd Arnold on the offshore drillers (1:10 hours)
Anas Alhajji on his 2024 oil market update and war in the Middle East (1:10 hours)
Juan Salerno on how Argentina is changing under Milei (53 mins)
Acquired Podcast on Novo Nordisk (3:45 hours)
