Monday Morning Links Week 50
Global stock-related links
Felix Zulauf (1 hour) notes extreme positioning in US Treasury bonds, though agreeing that bond yields will probably bottom first in mid-2024. He then pictures a bull market for commodities, as BRICs control 75% of commodities and will use that supply as a weapon in the intensifying conflict he sees with Western nations.
Substack authors Sleepwell Capital & Leandro (1:47 hours) argue that luxury companies need three attributes: 1) obsession with quality and craftsmanship, 2) exclusive & scarce and finally, 3) evoke status. They look at second-hand prices to understand which companies have achieved luxury status. This quote from The Luxury Strategy makes the case that luxury brands need to be aspirational:
“A luxury brand have to have far more people who know it and dream about it than buy it”
Finally, I believe Optimist Fund is onto something with Fiverr (4-page read). It remains the online marketplace for freelance services that I personally favor. The Google Trends chart looks fantastic. The share count dilution is much lower than for most US tech stocks. It generates US$50 million in free cash flow vs an EV of US$775 million. Optimist Fund believes Fiverr can grow at a 23% CAGR in the next five years.
Americas:
Fairlight Capital on Ulta Beauty (🇺🇸 ULTA US - US$23 billion)
Optimist Fund on online marketplace Fiverr (🇺🇸 FIVR US - US$1.0 billion)
Immersion Investments on Bel Fuse (🇺🇸 BELFA US - US$716 million)
Ausram on hospital operator Medical Facilities Corp (🇨🇦 DR CN - US$164 million)
Donville Kent on clothing retailer Reitmans (🇨🇦 RET CN - US$106 million)
Europe:
Mr Market Miscalculates on France’s Ipsos (🇫🇷 IPS FP - US$2.5 billion)
Undervalued Shares on e-tailer Hepsiburada (🇹🇷 HEPS US - US$567 million)
Palm Harbour Capital on SOTP Ocean Wilsons (🇬🇧 OCN LN - US$488 million)
Calico’s Substack on recycler Grupa Recykl (🇵🇱 GRC PW - US$33 million)
Asia-Pacific:
Secret Sauce Investing with an update on Nintendo (🇯🇵 7974 JP - US$55 billion)
Chow Wood, Carry Water: quick pitch on First Pacific (🇭🇰 142 HK - US$1.6 billion)
(estimated reading time)
Full version of Poor Charlie’s Almanack available for free (many hours)
Frederik Gieschen on Charlie Munger’s legacy (4 mins)
Sam Ro thinks any 2024 US recession will be short and shallow (5 mins)
Calafia Beach Pundit with some more charts about the US economy (3 mins)
Verdad on the supposed death of small cap equities (3 mins)
Undervalued Shares on opportunities in Nigerian equities (15 mins)
Noah Smith on the recent strength in Chinese car exports (7 mins)
Tribeca’s John Stover sees opportunities in Asian junk bonds (7 mins)
(listening time)
Charlie Munger on Costco, crypto and mental models (1:41 hours)
Felix Zulauf on US interest rates, the US dollar, the Yen and geopolitics (1 hour)
Sleepwell Capital & Leandro with a primer on luxury goods stocks (1:47 hours)
Jeffrey Gundlach sees a weakening in the US economy (47 mins)
Louis-Vincent Gave & Harris Kupperman are bullish yen, oil, EM, etc. (1:14 hrs)
Turtle Creek’s Andrew Brenton on achieving 20% since 1998 (1:26 hours)
Nicolai Tangen on what it’s like managing >US$1 trillion at Norges Bank (53 mins)
Jeremy Raper on his activist campaign with Bragg Gaming (56 mins)
Ali Gündüz on Swedish online casino platform developer Evolution (1:02 hours)
Asian Century Stocks (my sister publication): 4Q2023 macro update (30 mins)
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