Monday Morning Links Week 52
Monday Morning Links Week 52
Global stock-related links
Back to regular programming this week.
I loved the Columbia Business School interview with Egerton Capital’s John Armitage. Armitage has one of the best track records in Britain, compounding capital at a 16% CAGR on the long side. Today, he thinks the BRICS countries are uninteresting due to a lack of reform and poor quality companies. He likes the reinsurance industry (benefitting from high rates), Ryanair (low-cost leader) and First Citizen Bank. He worries that the Russia-China bloc is on a war footing, yet the West doesn’t even realize it’s a war. His favorite recent books & authors include The Mitrokhin Archive, Pierre Lemaitre, John Banville, Colm Tóibín, Katherine Rundell and The Fall of Robespierre.
Another episode with Felix Zulauf, whose predictions I always pay attention to. Zulauf expects equity market weakness until late 2024, with the Magnificent 7 US tech stocks suffering from redemptions. He also expects a weaker US Dollar and a stronger Japanese yen. According to Zulauf, short positions in the Japanese yen are “gigantic”, so when it starts to strengthen, it will do so with force.
The write-up that stood out to me was @JonathanPaxx’s tweets on Roivant Sciences. The Vivek Ramaswamy-backed company has been a great dealmaker in the past. It just sealed a US$7.3 billion deal with Roche for its subsidiary Televant. Roivant also owns a 57% stake in separately listed Immunovant, worth US$3.5 billion. Then there are also ongoing legal proceedings which, if successful, could bring in more than US$4 billion. It also has a pipeline of other drugs. Add it all up, and you get to a value far exceeding the current market cap of US$8.8 billion. Jonathan thinks the stock could be worth twice as much.
In any case, Happy Holidays to everyone, and I’ll see you on the other side of 2023! 🎄
Americas:
Secret Sauce on US discount store Dollar General (🇺🇸 DG US - US$29 billion)
Scuttleblurb on dating apps run by Match Group (🇺🇸 MTCH US - US$9.6 billion)
Jonathan Paxx with a few tweets on Roivant (🇺🇸 ROIV US - US$8.8 billion)
Chapter Twelve on energy nano-cap High Arctic (🇨🇦 HWO CN - US$40 million)
Europe:
Value & Opportunity on Samse Group (🇫🇷 SAMS FP - US$763 million)
Abilitato on Berentzen (🇩🇪 BEZ3 GR - US$58 million) (German language)
Asia-Pacific:
Atmos Invest on Kazakhstan fintech company Kaspi (🇰🇿 KSPI LN - US$18 billion)
Palliser on its campaign against Samsung C&T (🇰🇷 028260 KS - US$16 billion)
Tiago on healthcare equipment firm Japan Lifeline (🇯🇵 7575 JP - US$629 million)
(estimated reading time)
Mr Market Miscalculates: A great of book recommendations (24 slides)
The Bubble Blog: The Great British Bicycle Bubble of 1896 (6 mins)
French Hidden Champions: Interview with fund manager Louis de Fels (4 mins)
Special Situations Investing Substack on the soda ash industry (8 mins)
Hidden Rock Capital on a few US retailers they like (5 mins)
The Opus Substack with an investor guide to the country of Lithuania, whose shares you can buy via Interactive Brokers (19 mins)
Market Sentiment: Do old companies create outsized investor returns? (7 mins)
KonichiValue with an introduction to Japan’s adult industry (10 mins)
(listening time)
John Armitage on how he picks stocks and the current market outlook (52 mins)
Felix Zulauf warns of a weaker US stock market, weaker US Dollar (34 mins)
The Transcript thinks low-income households are suffering, others not (6 mins)
John Huber on US retailers, including his favorite: Floor & Decor (1:19 hours)
Yaron Naymark of 1 Main Capital, whose CAGR since inception is 24% (1:14 hrs)
Swetha Ramachandran of Artemis on spirits maker Pernod Ricard (47 mins)
Kevin Mak pitches Sphere Entertainment, the owner of The Sphere (1:13 hours)
Shai Oster on Chinese tech in 2023 incl Bytedance, Tencent, etc. (1:02 hours)
Axel Krohne on his approach to value investing in African equities (17 mins)
Disclaimer: Monday Morning Links uses information sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information contained in this publication is not intended to constitute individual investment advice and is not designed to meet your personal financial situation. The opinions expressed in such publications are those of the publisher and are subject to change without notice. You are advised to discuss your investment options with your financial advisers, including whether any investment suits your specific needs. From time to time, I may have positions in the securities covered in the articles on this website.