Monday Morning Links Week 6
Global stock-related links
I loved the interview with real estate investor Starwood Capital’s Barry Sternlicht. He thinks high interest will cause “accidents” in the US commercial real estate sector. Properly adjusted, inflation has already come down, but Powell is behind the curve. He thinks interest rates will come down by June. By then, it will become obvious that inflation is below 2% and the US economy is slowing down.
I also liked Alluvial Capital’s write-up on Net Lease Office Properties. Spin-off dynamics might explain the low valuation. It’s also helpful that the company is in the midst of a liquidation process that’s acting as a near-term catalyst. Exactly what prices they’ll get for their office properties requires industry expertise, but I assume that Alluvial is conservative with its US$130/square foot estimate in its US$38/share valuation.
Finally, I recommend Pyramids & Pagodas interview with the CEO of Plover Bay Technologies. I’ve written about the stock in the past. It has all the hallmarks of a compounder stock: great management, rational capital allocation, a strong product portfolio (as far as I can tell), benefitting from secular trends, expected top-line growth of 20% per year, a net-cash balance sheet and a low valuation of just 10x P/E.
Americas:
Invariant on US tobacco company Altria (🇺🇸 MOMO US - US$1.1 billion)
Almost Mongolian on Lundin-backed Africa Oil (🇨🇦 AOI US - US$832 million)
Laughing Water Capital on spectrum owner Nextnav (🇺🇸 NN US - US$451 million)
Eagle Point Capital on Esquire Financial (🇺🇸 ESQ US - US$392 million)
Alluvial Capital on Net Lease Office Properties (🇺🇸 NLOP US - US$360 million)
Toffcap on engineering company ADF Group (🇨🇦 DRX CN - US$198 million)
Greystone on SaaS company Sylogist (🇨🇦 SYZ CN - US$153 million)
Europe, Middle East & Africa:
Investment Talk on Auction Technology Group (🇬🇧 ATG LN - US$800 million)
Gehlen Bräutigam on fashion retailer Bijou Brigitte (🇩🇪 AS US - US$322 million)
Simon Caufield on Hargreaves Services (🇬🇧 HSP US - US$203 million)
Ennismore on Celebrus Technologies (🇬🇧 AS US - US$114 million)
Asia-Pacific:
Jam_invest with a quick note on Yum China (🇨🇳 YUMC US - US$14 billion)
Pyramids & Pagodas with CEO of Plover Bay Tech (🇭🇰 1523 HK - US$279 million)
(estimated reading time)
Jeff Gramm on value investing and his book Dear Chairman (22 mins)
Edelweiss Capital with a primer on insurance (13 mins)
A rare interview with Fidelity’s Joel Tillinghast (16 mins)
Turtles Substack with a portfolio update (3 mins)
Investment blogging veteran Wexboy‘s 2024 review (25 mins)
Real China Charts with thought-provoking charts on China’s economy (3 mins)
Asian Century Stocks (my publication) with an Ask Me Anything thread (22 min)
(listening time)
Barry Sternlicht on commercial real estate, interest rates and more (32 mins)
Steve Eisman, Vincent Daniel, etc. in a “Big Short 2024” roundtable (27 mins)
Jim Chanos on similarities between today and the Dotcom bubble (33 mins)
Professor Gauti Eggertsson on the post-pandemic inflation surge (1 hour)
Verdad’s Dan Rasmussen on his approach to quant investing (1 hour)
Ben Mackovak on investing in US community banks (1 hour)
Josh Young with his outlook for oil & gas companies and the market (1 hour)
Jens Nordvig discussing China’s economic slowdown (39 mins)
Another interview with LatAm Substack author Ian Bezek (50 mins)
Artisan Partners’ David Samra breaking down Samsung Electronics (51 mins)
